After publishing 2019-2029 job projections in the fall of 2020 that did not capture the effects of the pandemic, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) issued alternate scenarios that model how jobs might be impacted if COVID-19 continues to have a moderate impact on the economy versus a strong one. Across all occupations, job growth is expected to be almost one percentage point lower in the moderate impact scenario (2.9% versus 3.7%) and close to two percentage points lower in the strong impact scenario (1.9% versus 3.7%). Though long-term job growth is muted in those scenarios and many jobs may be negatively affected going forward, there are still others that offer stable opportunities. In this study, we rank the most promising jobs for employment and pay, using the below methodology.
DATA AND METHODOLOGY
We filtered a total of 808 occupations detailed by the BLS by those with greater than 10% projected growth in employment (according to the moderate pandemic impact scenario) over the next 10 years. We also filtered by occupations with 2019 mean earnings greater than $64,240 (which is the 75th percentile of annual earnings nationally). The remaining 40 jobs are the most promising for employment and pay. To rank those jobs further, we considered four metrics: 10-year expected percentage growth in employment, 10-year expected growth in number of workers, 2019 average earnings and four-year growth in earnings from 2015 to 2019. Both the 10-year expected percentage growth in employment and 10-year expected growth in number of workers are from the BLS’ moderate impact scenario. We ranked each occupation in those four metrics, giving each an equal weighting. We then found each occupation’s average ranking and used the average to determine a final score.
The occupation with the highest average ranking received a score of 100. The occupation with the lowest average ranking received a score of 0.
1. Nurse Practitioners
Projected growth percentage, 2019-2029: 52.3%
Projected growth in jobs, 2019-2029: 110,500
Average earnings in 2019: $111,840
4-year change in earnings: 10.45%
2. Medical and Health Services Managers
Projected growth percentage, 2019-2029: 31.5%
Projected growth in jobs, 2019-2029: 133,000
Average earnings in 2019: $115,160
4-year change in earnings: 8.57%
3. Information Security Analysts
Projected growth percentage, 2019-2029: 42.1%
Projected growth in jobs, 2019-2029: 55,200
Average earnings in 2019: $104,210
4-year change in earnings: 11.75%
4. Physician Assistants
Projected growth percentage, 2019-2029: 31.2%
Projected growth in jobs, 2019-2029: 39,200
Average earnings in 2019: $112,410
4-year change in earnings: 13.24%
5. Financial Managers
Projected growth percentage, 2019-2029: 15.3%
Projected growth in jobs, 2019-2029: 106,800
Average earnings in 2019: $147,530
4-year change in earnings: 9.83%
6. Statisticians
Projected growth percentage, 2019-2029: 35.4%
Projected growth in jobs, 2019-2029: 15,100
Average earnings in 2019: $95,680
4-year change in earnings: 13.31%
7. Postsecondary Health Specialties Teachers
Projected growth percentage, 2019-2029: 20.0%
Projected growth in jobs, 2019-2029: 50,900
Average earnings in 2019: $121,620
4-year change in earnings: 6.21%
8. Computer and Information Research Scientists
Projected growth percentage, 2019-2029: 19.1%
Projected growth in jobs, 2019-2029: 6,200
Average earnings in 2019: $127,460
4-year change in earnings: 10.28%
9. Computer and Information Systems Managers
Projected growth percentage, 2019-2029: 11.0%
Projected growth in jobs, 2019-2029: 50,700
Average earnings in 2019: $156,390
4-year change in earnings: 10.91%
10. Computer Network Architects
Projected growth percentage, 2019-2029: 14.5%
Projected growth in jobs, 2019-2029: 23,200
Average earnings in 2019: $115,110
4-year change in earnings: 11.65%
11. Nurse Anesthetists
Projected growth percentage, 2019-2029: 13.6%
Projected growth in jobs, 2019-2029: 6,100
Average earnings in 2019: $181,040
4-year change in earnings: 12.97%
12. Psychiatrists
Projected growth percentage, 2019-2029: 17.4%
Projected growth in jobs, 2019-2029: 4,800
Average earnings in 2019: $120,970
4-year change in earnings: 9.42%
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