WHAT CITIES WILL BECOME TOO PRICEY WITHIN A YEAR?

Ogden
 

Rising home values can quickly transition a reasonable housing market into the type of real estate monster that has consumed places like the San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles and New York. While the idea of affordable housing in an urban center isn’t implausible for plenty of Americans living in the Midwest and South, that’s also rapidly changing in some areas.

GOBankingRates conducted a study to determine which major U.S. cities are on track to lose their label of affordability. After taking 300 of the biggest cities in the U.S., the study used Zillow’s one-year forecast to project the growth in home values in each city over the next decade. Then, it identified the places where that change would take the average home value from under the national median — which currently sits at $259,906 and is expected to rise 7.0% in the next year — to over the median at some point in the next 10 years.

Granted, this approach comes with some caveats. Projecting into the future based on a single year’s growth rate could ultimately paint an unfair picture in markets where the current rate is an anomaly. Additionally, Zillow’s estimated home values don’t necessarily reflect the list prices or sale prices in each market.

Still, identifying the areas that are outpacing the national average for growth can help shed light on the cities where you should buy a home sooner rather than later. If you end up living in one of these cities 10 years down the line, you might want to check out other, more affordable real estate markets instead.

1. Ogden, Utah

  • 2020 home value: $258,544
  • One-year projected growth rate: 8.1%

Ogden was the first settlement in Utah, located 35 miles north of Salt Lake City. It attracts numerous tourists to ski and enjoy the snow.

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2021
  • Projected home value: $279,486
  • U.S. median projected home value: $278,099
  • Difference in value: $1,387

2. Providence, Rhode Island

  • 2020 home value: $259,027
  • One-year projected growth rate: 8.3%

Historic Providence was founded in 1636 by preacher Roger Williams and boasts a population of 179,883 people.

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2021
  • Projected home value: $280,526
  • U.S. median projected home value: $278,099
  • Difference in value: $2,427

3. San Tan Valley, Arizona

  • 2020 home value: $259,581
  • One-year projected growth rate: 8.7%

San Tan Valley is home to 80,000 people in the foothills of the San Tan Mountains with a thriving park and recreation area. San Tan Valley features age-restricted communities and family neighborhoods. It’s near the larger city of Chandler.

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2021
  • Projected home value: $282,165
  • U.S. median projected home value: $278,099
  • Difference in value: $4,066

4. El Centro, California

  • 2020 home value: $255,836
  • One-year projected growth rate: 8.2%

El Centro covers 11.019 square miles and is the largest city in Imperial County. It has a population of 44,000 and growing.

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2022
  • Projected home value: $299,513
  • U.S. median projected home value: $297,566
  • Difference in value: $1,947

5. Idaho Falls, Idaho

  • 2020 home value: $257,435
  • One-year projected growth rate: 8%

Idaho Falls, Idaho is located in Bonneville County. It is the largest city in the Eastern Idaho region and is the third-largest metropolitan area in the state.

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2022
  • Projected home value: $300,272
  • U.S. median projected home value: $297,566
  • Difference in value: $2,706

6. Apache Junction, Arizona

  • 2020 home value: $254,454
  • One-year projected growth rate: 8.7%

Apache Junction, incorporated in 1978, is located on the eastern rim of the Phoenix Metropolitan area, near the foot of the scenic Superstition Mountains. Apache Junction crosses from Pinal County into Maricopa County to the west and is the start of the scenic Apache Trail.

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2022
  • Projected home value: $300,655
  • U.S. median projected home value: $297,566
  • Difference in value: $3,089

7. Melbourne, Florida

  • 2020 home value: $253,501
  • One-year projected growth rate: 7.6%

Melbourne is a metropolitan area with lots of access to wildlife, nature and beaches. It’s just a 90-minute drive from Orlando’s big attractions. It has a population of 576,808.

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2025
  • Projected home value: $365,629
  • U.S. median projected home value: $364,532
  • Difference in value: $1,097

8. Town ‘n’ Country, Florida

  • 2020 home value: $253,590
  • One-year projected growth rate: 7.6%

Town ‘n’ Country is a suburb of Tampa with a population of 85,620 in Hillsborough County.

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2025
  • Projected home value: $365,758
  • U.S. median projected home value: $364,532
  • Difference in value: $1,226

9. Rock Hill, South Carolina

  • 2020 home value: $216,996
  • One-year projected growth rate: 10.3%

Rock Hill, South Carolina is located in the north-central area of South Carolina, approximately 20 miles south of Charlotte, North Carolina. The city has a growing population of 67,000 residents.

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2026
  • Projected home value: $390,755
  • U.S. median projected home value: $390,049
  • Difference in value: $706

10. Concord, North Carolina

  • 2020 home value: $253,441
  • One-year projected growth rate: 7.5%

Just under 80,000 people reside in Concord, which is located immediately outside of Charlotte, North Carolina. With a median income of over $60,000, Concord residents earn slightly more than the national average.

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2026
  • Projected home value: $391,136
  • U.S. median projected home value: $390,049
  • Difference in value: $1,087

11. Clearwater, Florida

  • 2020 home value: $245,200
  • One-year projected growth rate: 8.1%

Clearwater sits north of St. Petersburg and west of Tampa on Florida’s Gulf Coast. The city’s roughly 45,000 residents can enjoy the sun and surf as well as their proximity to two larger cities and all of the associated amenities.

When it Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2026
  • Projected home value: $391,268
  • U.S. median projected home value: $390,049
  • Difference in value: $1,219

12. St. Petersburg, Florida

  • 2020 home value: $234,372
  • One-year projected growth rate: 8.6%

Sitting just south of Clearwater, St. Petersburg offers warm weather and a great location on Florida’s Gulf Coast and the Tampa Bay. It has a population of over 50,000 residents.

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2027
  • Projected home value: $417,556
  • U.S. median projected home value: $417,352
  • Difference in value: $204

13. Tulare, California

  • 2020 home value: $241,615
  • One-year projected growth rate: 8.1%

The town of Tulare was founded in 1872 by the Southern Pacific Railroad to serve as its San Joaquin Valley headquarters. The city is situated in the Central San Joaquin Valley along Highway 99, 45 miles south of Fresno, 60 miles north of Bakersfield and near the city of Visalia.

Visalia, California shown here

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2028
  • Projected home value: $450,536
  • U.S. median projected home value: $446,567
  • Difference in value: $3,969

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